Jacques De Kock

MitonOptimal’s outlook for Q1 2026 reflects a market environment that is transitioning away from the narrow, tech-dominated surge of 2025 toward a broader, more rotational phase. We noted weakening momentum in global equities, particularly in the Nasdaq, where key support levels are being tested. This signals that 2026 may see further consolidation in mega-cap tech as earnings expectations normalise. We expect volatility around major catalysts such as Nvidia’s results and the durability of US consumer demand, while the rotation toward materials, energy, healthcare and gold is likely to strengthen as financial repression, high government debt and de-dollarisation trends accelerate.

Gold remains a high-conviction asset going into Q1 2026, supported by central bank buying – especially China’s undisclosed purchases – and structural demand. Commodities, more broadly, should benefit from supply constraints, with platinum group metals, copper and energy displaying improving long-term outlooks.

South Africa enters 2026 from a position of increasing strength. The breakout in SA bonds, improved fiscal credibility, a stable-to-strong rand, and better corporate earnings revisions support continued resilience in SA equities and listed property. Rotation into financials and quality domestic names is expected to continue, while any volatility is viewed as an opportunity to add selectively at favourable levels.

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